Slovenian tourism does not feel the influence of the economic crisis anymore
Tourism Confidence Index (TCI) shows that in the first four months of 2011 Slovenian tourism has achieved better results (TCI 98) than expected (TCI 94). This happened for the first time since the occurrence of the economic crisis. The expectations for the period May–August 2011 are optimistic as well. On the scale that has an interval of 100 points below normal business results and 100 points above normal business results, the TCI prospects for May–August 2011 exceed normal business results for 13 points.
But Slovenia is still lagging behind the Europe and the world. European tourism reports excellent results and shows increased tourism confidence. UNWTO TCI prospects for Europe for the upcoming four months are 33 points above normal business results. Expectations on the world level are somewhat lower (UNWTO TCI prospects 127), mainly due to the events in North Africa and Middle East.
Slovenia reports better results in international tourist arrivals in the first four months in 2011 than Europe and the world. Domestic tourism has a slightly lower growth rate than international tourism (Surs, 2011).
In 2011 tourism managers expect better business results Slovenian tourism managers predict that tourism sector will regain positive growth in 2011. Tourism Confidence Index (TCI) for 2011 is above 100 for the first time since the beginning of the economic crisis (TCI prospects 104). However, there is no reason for excessive optimism. European managers are in fact much more optimistic and expect a higher growth (TCI prospects 132). In comparison with 2009, the number of international tourist arrivals in Slovenia grew by two percent (Sors, 2011), while Europe recorded a 3.4-percent growth (UNWTO, 2011). One percent decline of tourist nights at the expense of declining domestic tourist nights was recorded in Slovenia (Sors, 2011). International tourist nights increased by one percent, a slight growth of foreign exchange earnings from tourism is also expected (BS, 2011). The question is, why revival of tourism confidence and business is so slow in Slovenia. This report identifies the factors and opportunities and threats of development of Slovenian tourism. It seeks to answer which factors influence in positive and which in negative direction and what their potential is. Tenth report on ITEF’s Tourism Confidence Index (TCI) for Slovenia consists of two parts, first results on a yearly basis are shown (2009 and 2010), and then results for the previous (Sept.–Dec.) and forthcoming (Jan.–Apr.) four-month period are presented.
About TCI for Slovenia and Unwto TCI
The United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) Tourism Confidence Index survey has been conducted since 2003 in order to keep track of the tourism sector's actual performance and perceived short-term prospects at the global and regional levels. In 2007, Institute for Tourism of the Faculty of Economics (ITEF) of the University of Ljubljana in cooperation with Slovenian Tourist Board (STB) applied the same methodology to calculate the Tourism Confidence Index for Slovenia. Tenth round of the survey encompassed 167 Slovenian experts from tourism sector.
Slovenian tourism, according to tourism experts, is slowly recovering, however, the evaluations and prospects of tourism business are still below the normal business operations (100), but forecasts are slowly approaching this level. Read more in summery of the report.
Slovenian tourism confidence index survey shows a fall in confidence for 2009, index value is 80. The expectations have fallen below the ‘neutral’ 100 for the first time and therefore have a negative connotation, but are still closer to the expectations of a normal business year, than to expectations of bad business results (value of index 50). Slovenian tourism experts are still quite optimistic in comparison to European tourism experts who rate the performance closer to worse than they would normally expect (European confidence index is 65). Read more in summery of the report.