Slovenian Tourism Barometer: Stable Expectations for 2026 and an Optimistic Outlook for the Summer Season

This edition of the Barometer also introduces a new feature: a forecast of visitor numbers and accommodation occupancy during the upcoming summer season.

Positive Expectations Continue to Prevail

Assessments of tourism performance in the second quarter are more diverse than in previous periods, with both optimistic and more cautious views becoming more pronounced. Nevertheless, positive expectations continue to dominate. Around half of respondents believe that tourism performance between April and June will be slightly stronger than in the same period last year, while more than one-tenth anticipate significantly improved results.

Poland and the Czech Republic Identified as the Most Promising Growth Markets

Among international source markets, the strongest growth in 2026 is expected from Poland and the Czech Republic. These are followed by neighbouring markets, including Hungary, Croatia, and Austria. The UK, Germany, and Italy also rank highly, with growth from each of these markets anticipated by more than one-fifth of respondents. The US, the Netherlands, and the domestic market complete the top ten markets expected to record the strongest growth.

High Occupancy Rates Forecast for the Summer Season

The outlook for the summer holiday period is particularly encouraging. Two-thirds of respondents expect visitor numbers to remain at the same level as last year, while one-third foresee higher demand. No respondent expects a decline in tourism activity during the summer season. Similarly, none anticipate low occupancy rates, with accommodation capacities expected to remain well utilised throughout the peak travel period.

International visitors are expected to account for the majority of tourism demand during the summer months, with their share projected to exceed that recorded in the current quarter.

Road Traffic Congestion Remains the Most Significant Concern

The factors identified by respondents reflect the current geopolitical environment and developments in the Middle East. Slovenia’s geopolitical stability continues to be regarded as the most important positive factor influencing tourism performance. Improved air connectivity remains a supportive factor, although it is ranked lower than in previous surveys. The most notable increase among positive factors is associated with higher transportation costs to more distant destinations, which may strengthen Slovenia’s attractiveness as a closer and more accessible travel option. Growing congestion in competing destinations and the continued strengthening of destination brands are also viewed positively.

Among the key risks, insufficient road traffic flow remains the most frequently cited concern. This is followed by limited air connectivity and ongoing labour shortages within the tourism sector. Compared with the previous quarter, the sharpest increase among risk factors was recorded for higher travel costs from more distant source markets.

Middle East Conflict Expected to Influence Tourism Flows

The vast majority of respondents (88 %) expect the ongoing conflict in the Middle East to have an impact on Slovenian tourism in 2026. Among those anticipating an effect, more than two-thirds believe the impact is likely to be positive, reflecting potential shifts in travel patterns and destination choices.

Data for the second quarter of 2026 (Q2) was collected between 12 May and 1 June 2026.

Source: Slovenian Tourism Barometer

The Slovenian Tourism Barometer is conducted quarterly among the same panel of respondents representing the Slovenian tourism sector, ensuring the comparability of results over time. The survey is carried out in cooperation with Arhea.

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