Slovenian Tourism Barometer: Results for the First Quarter of 2026
Published:
17.3.2026
Slovenian Tourism Barometer: Results for the First Quarter of 2026
The results for the first quarter (January–March 2026) point to an optimistic outlook for Slovenian tourism, with most respondents forecasting stable to moderate growth in arrivals this year. This edition of the Barometer also introduces a new element: a forecast of tourist visits and accommodation occupancy during the Easter holidays.
Optimistic Outlook for Q1 2026
Approximately half of the participating experts expect tourism performance in the current quarter to be better or significantly better than in the same period last year, while just under one tenth anticipate weaker results. Compared to the previous quarter (October–December 2025), the outlook is notably more optimistic.
Moderate Growth in Arrivals Expected in 2026
Most experts anticipate that the number of arrivals in 2026 will remain broadly in line with last year. Around three quarters estimate that arrivals will be either unchanged or up to 5% higher, reflecting a stronger and more consistent outlook than in any quarter of the previous year.
Poland: The Market with the Strongest Growth Forecast for 2026
Experts most strongly predict growth from the Polish market, followed by Croatia, which also maintained steady growth expectations throughout 2025. Other key markets expected to grow remain unchanged from last year—namely the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Austria.
Strong Occupancy Expected During the Easter Holidays
For the upcoming Easter period, most experts anticipate a similar level of visits as last year, with medium to high accommodation occupancy. Nearly half expect predominantly international guests, while just over one third foresee a balanced ratio between domestic and foreign visitors.
Key Risks: Prices, Workforce, and Connectivity
Geopolitical stability and improved air connectivity remain the two most prominent factors, while geographical location and accessibility have gained the most importance, now ranked ahead of improvements in the guest experience.
A poor guest experience is no longer considered a key risk. Instead, weak air connectivity and price competitiveness have come to the forefront, although the latter is less pronounced than in 2025. A shortage of workforce in tourism continues to rank among the top three risks.
Among geopolitical risks, conflicts in the Middle East may influence global tourism flows and, consequently, Slovenia. These impacts will be analysed in more detail in a special edition of the Slovenian Tourism Barometer to be published in April.
Data collection period for Q1 2026: 13 February – 9 March 2026
Source: Slovenian Tourism Barometer
* To provide a clearer understanding of the current situation, outlook, and trends in Slovenian tourism, the Slovenian Tourism Barometer was established in 2025, following the model of the World Tourism Organization. It enables regular, systematic, and expert monitoring and forecasting of trends within the tourism sector. The survey is carried out in cooperation with Arhea.*
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